Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bears vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to run on 46.0% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- In this game, Josh Jacobs is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.5 rush attempts.
- Josh Jacobs has been given 78.9% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in football last year.
- The Chicago Bears defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.0 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.2 per game on average).
- Josh Jacobs’s 53.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a a noteworthy drop-off in his rushing prowess over last year’s 100.0 mark.
- The Chicago Bears defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing just 3.79 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
