Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to run on 46.0% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
In this game, Josh Jacobs is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.5 rush attempts.
Josh Jacobs has been given 78.9% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in football last year.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Cons

The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.0 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.2 per game on average).
Josh Jacobs’s 53.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a a noteworthy drop-off in his rushing prowess over last year’s 100.0 mark.
The Chicago Bears defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing just 3.79 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards