Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-131) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
The model projects Brian Robinson to earn 14.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
After taking on 52.4% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Brian Robinson has had a larger role in the running game this season, now making up 63.1%.
This year, the feeble Giants run defense has yielded a staggering 152.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 39.9% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
When it comes to run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year.
Brian Robinson’s 48.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a a meaningful diminishment in his running prowess over last season’s 63.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards