Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Commanders to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Terry McLaurin to garner 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin’s 54.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 81st percentile for wideouts.
The Washington offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
After totaling 88.0 air yards per game last year, Terry McLaurin has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 80.0 per game.
Terry McLaurin has put up significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards