Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-127) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
- The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Evan Engram ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a remarkable 46.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
Cons
- This year, the stout Saints defense has conceded a mere 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-fewest in football.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.1%) versus tight ends this year (63.1%).
- The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
