Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Rams vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 92.1% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- The predictive model expects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 8.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- As it relates to air yards, Diontae Johnson grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 89.0 per game.
Cons
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Diontae Johnson is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, completing just 61.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile among wideouts
- Diontae Johnson comes in as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL, averaging just 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile when it comes to wideouts
- This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded a measly 51.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
