Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-104/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-104) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to use backup QB Tyrod Taylor.
- The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the New York Giants this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).
- The Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
- In this game, Darren Waller is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 92nd percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 50.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
- Darren Waller has put up far fewer air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).
- The New York offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Darren Waller’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 6.99 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.78 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
