Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Calvin Ridley from EV Insight

Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards

Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-103) after it opened @ 54.5 (-117).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.0% of their downs: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.0 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Cons

The Jacksonville O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Calvin Ridley checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in football, completing a mere 61.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 25th percentile among wide receivers
With a subpar 2.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley ranks among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL in space.
This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has given up a meager 57.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a paltry 6.8 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards