WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-103) after it opened @ 54.5 (-117).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.0% of their downs: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.0 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
- The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cons
- The Jacksonville O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Calvin Ridley checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in football, completing a mere 61.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 25th percentile among wide receivers
- With a subpar 2.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley ranks among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL in space.
- This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has given up a meager 57.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL.
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a paltry 6.8 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
