Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-110) after it opened @ 230.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Commanders to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Sam Howell has attempted 37.8 throws per game this year, ranking in the 87th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
- The Washington offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- With an outstanding tally of 250.0 adjusted passing yards per game (79th percentile), Sam Howell has been as one of the best QBs in football this year.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
- This year, the daunting New York Giants defense has surrendered a feeble 213.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 9th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
