Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 262.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense’s effect on tempo, the Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed opposing teams to play 10th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) this year at 27.01 seconds per snap.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
This week, Matthew Stafford is expected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.7.
Matthew Stafford’s 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a a remarkable gain in his passing prowess over last year’s 220.0 mark.

Cons

This week’s line indicates a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Rams grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Matthew Stafford’s passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 59.8%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the league versus the Steelers defense this year (62.2% Adjusted Completion%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards