Week 7 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

No more Jacksonville. 

It appears the “negative culture” embattled head coach Doug Pederson referred to has permeated the entire Jaguars locker room. After a very poor performance against the Bears in London, it’s time to move on from my Jags. Fortunately, I’ve found multiple plays I like this week for our moneyline underdog column. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 7 of the 2024 season.

Week 7 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Miami +3.5 at Indianapolis 

(+150, BetMGM)

This is a pick against the Colts and for a Miami team that is getting healthy. The Dolphins should see the full return of their backfield, with explosive running back De’Von Achane spotted at practice Tuesday morning. Miami found ground success in Week 5 with both Raheem Mostert (80 rushing yards, 4.2 YPC) and rookie Jaylen Wright (86 rushing yards, 6.6 YPC) blowtorching a Patriots run defense on the road. The Colts run defense has struggled all season, allowing the second-most yards (155.2) per game on the ground. Only the Rams have allowed more (157.6). 

The Dolphins are coming off their bye week, with extra time to prepare for a Colts team that just had two tough divisional road games against Jacksonville (lost 37-34) and Tennessee (won 20-17). Indianapolis is expected to start Anthony Richardson this week, which is not necessarily a positive for the team. Veteran Joe Flacco has clearly outplayed Richardson, but Indianapolis needs to see if the second-year signal-caller is their true franchise quarterback. 

Our FTN Betting Model shows a 26% edge on the Dolphins +3, so I’m grabbing the rested Dolphins against an Indianapolis team without an identity. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.50 Units

Detroit +2.5 at Minnesota

(+115, BetMGM)

The Lions are the best team in the NFC North, and they will prove it this week at Minnesota. The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 but have enjoyed unsustainable luck all season. They are a perfect 3-0 in one-score games, Minnesota has the fourth-highest turnover rate this season, with nine total turnovers in their five matchups. Sam Darnold has thrown four interceptions in his five games and struggled in his last game against the Jets in London. The Vikings still have health concerns on offense with the status of Aaron Jones and tight end T.J. Hockenson. While Minnesota has played well, especially on defense, the Vikings offense has provided opportunities that opponents have now capitalized on. 

Detroit will not provide extra chances for Minnesota, as evidenced by the fourth-fewest team turnovers (4) in the league. All have been Jared Goff interceptions, but Goff also carries the fifth-lowest turnover-worthy among all qualified quarterbacks per FTN StatsHub.

This is a battle between two very good NFC North teams, but the Lions have more experience and a better offensive line. Look for Minnesota’s turnover luck to expire, and the Lions to grab a critical division road win.

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.15 Units