Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects Tony Pollard to notch 18.0 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- After taking on 41.6% of his offense’s rush attempts last year, Tony Pollard has had a larger role in the run game this year, now comprising 63.2%.
- Tony Pollard has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (58.0).
- Since the start of last season, the imposing Chargers run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.35 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 31st-best rate in the league.
- When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Los Angeles’s collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- The Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the projection model to call 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
