WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-148) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- With an elite 95.9% Route% (97th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.
- In this contest, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the projections to place in the 85th percentile among wide receivers with 8.1 targets.
- Zay Flowers has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 65.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
- The Titans pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.8%) versus WRs this year (76.8%).
Cons
- This game’s line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Ravens to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- This year, the formidable Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a puny 3.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
