NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- This game’s spread suggests a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect Marquise Brown to accrue 8.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- Marquise Brown has been a more integral piece of his offense’s passing offense this season (29.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (23.6%).
- When it comes to air yards, Marquise Brown ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among WRs this year, accumulating an impressive 103.0 per game.
Cons
- The projections expect the Cardinals offensive approach to skew 5.5% more towards the ground game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (55.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Marquise Brown’s 58.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a a meaningful regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 62.8% mark.
- This year, the daunting Rams defense has yielded a measly 113.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
