Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-136/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-136) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Keenan Allen has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (111.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Cons
- The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
- This year, the fierce Cowboys defense has surrendered a puny 121.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in football.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.9%) to wideouts since the start of last season (62.9%).
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Dallas’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards
97
Receiving Yards
