Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-136/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-136) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Keenan Allen has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (111.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
This year, the fierce Cowboys defense has surrendered a puny 121.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in football.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.9%) to wideouts since the start of last season (62.9%).
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Dallas’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards