NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-130) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (40.8 per game) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to accrue 5.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
- Jake Ferguson has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass game this season (17.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).
- After averaging 4.0 air yards per game last year, Jake Ferguson has been rising this year, currently pacing 26.0 per game.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the projection model to call 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
- Jake Ferguson’s 76.1% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a a significant drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 84.5% rate.
- This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a meager 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-best rate in football.
- This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a paltry 3.4 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
