Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-114) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to lean 4.0% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
- The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- This week, DeAndre Hopkins is predicted by the model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.1 targets.
- After accumulating 111.0 air yards per game last year, DeAndre Hopkins has seen a big uptick this year, now averaging 116.0 per game.
Cons
- At the present time, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (57.6% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 72.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 82.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
