Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+105/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-140) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.0% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 4.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 76.3%.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has posted quite a few less air yards this season (13.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
