Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the league.
Cade Otton has gone out for fewer passes this year (82.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (63.9%).
The leading projections forecast Cade Otton to notch 4.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cade Otton’s ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 66.2% to 79.4%.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 16.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards