Week 6 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

We snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Week 5, with Tampa Bay somehow blowing their comfortable lead at Atlanta Thursday night. That’s the ride we take with moneyline underdogs, as we now turn our attention to Week 6 with the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings all on bye.  

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 6 of the 2024 season.

Week 6 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Jacksonville +2.5 vs. Chicago (London)

(+120, FanDuel Sportsbook)

It wasn’t easy, but the Jaguars finally earned their first win in a 37-34 home victory over Indianapolis. At 1-4, the Jaguars now head over to their second home, London, for two consecutive games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. In Week 6, they will battle the Bears, winners of two straight games. 

Caleb Williams has started to find his groove, throwing for 304 yards with two touchdowns in the Bears 36-10 destruction of Carolina. But the rookie’s success has been supported by a strong rushing attack that has produced 128 or more yards each of the past two weeks. Jacksonville’s run defense ranks top 12 in DVOA, and have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game. Without a strong running game for balance, Williams will find trouble against a now-healthy Jaguars secondary. 

The Bears defense ranks eighth overall in DVOA, but has been gashed on the ground. Chicago is third worstin run defense DVOA, only better than Dallas and Miami, and have allowed 129.7 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. 

This is a bet on the Jaguars continuing to experience positive regression after an unlucky 0-4 start, and against a rookie quarterback making his first start in London. Jacksonville’s offense should be at full strength with the return of tight end Evan Engram, putting maximum pressure on the Bears defense. Jacksonville needs this win to stay in the playoff hunt and avoid going 1-5, and the Jaguars did sweep their two games in London last season (with two covers). I was very surprised to see the Jaguars as an underdog, making them my clear pick as the Week 6 play.  

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.20 Units