Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Texans as the 7th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.3% run rate.
The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The projections expect Dameon Pierce to notch 17.2 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Cons

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Dameon Pierce has been a less important option in his team’s running game this season (63.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (77.3%).
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year in run blocking.
Dameon Pierce has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Dameon Pierce’s ground efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a mere 2.83 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards