Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Falcons vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The model projects the Texans as the 7th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.3% run rate.
- The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
- The projections expect Dameon Pierce to notch 17.2 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- Dameon Pierce has been a less important option in his team’s running game this season (63.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (77.3%).
- The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year in run blocking.
- Dameon Pierce has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
- Dameon Pierce’s ground efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a mere 2.83 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
