Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+106) after it opened @ 78.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
- The model projects A.J. Brown to earn 10.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- A.J. Brown has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this season (34.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (28.1%).
- After averaging 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has gotten better this season, currently boasting 134.0 per game.
- A.J. Brown has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a measly 53.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in football.
- This year, the fierce Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a paltry 6.4 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards
95
Receiving Yards
