Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Bijan Robinson from EV Insight

Bijan RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Bijan Robinson to garner 13.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Bijan Robinson’s running efficiency (5.54 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (82nd percentile among running backs).
The Detroit Lions defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 5.16 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards