Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Bijan RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Bijan Robinson to garner 13.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Bijan Robinson’s running efficiency (5.54 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (82nd percentile among running backs).
- The Detroit Lions defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 5.16 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
