Week 3 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

And that’s how we do it! 

After a Tennessee meltdown to Chicago in Week 1, we responded nicely with a +220 moneyline hit with the Vikings upsetting the 49ers. Minnesota’s defense combined with this 97-yard touchdown catch by Justin Jefferson gets us to the window and into the net positive for the season. We are on to Week 3. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 3 of the 2024 season.

Week 3 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Jacksonville +5.5 at Buffalo

(+220, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let’s go back to another +220 moneyline play with the Jaguars at the Bills. This is a classic buy-low spot on Jacksonville, who were upset at home against Cleveland in Week 2. Jacksonville has too many offensive weapons to continue struggling. Last week, tight end Evan Engram was ruled out prior to warmups, which clearly affected the Jaguars game plan. He is considered week-to-week, but it would be a huge boost to the offense if he can play in Week 3. Engram’s absence is baked into this line, providing value if he does return. Even though the Jaguars have struggled to put up points, their offense still ranks 11th overall in DVOA, one spot ahead of Kansas City. The Jaguars are 15th in yards per play, 19th in success rate, and Lawrence has yet to throw an interception. They just managed to fumble at the worst possible time in Week 1. There certainly is positive regression coming if quarterback Trevor Lawrence can simply connect with his elite playmakers such as Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk. 

While the Jaguars offense has struggled, their defense has played well. Jacksonville has posted five sacks through two games and stifled the Dolphins explosive offense until the Travis Etienne goal-line fumble led to an 80-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill. After an 0-2 start and Buffalo’s impressive 31-10 destruction of Miami, no one will be interested in backing Jacksonville on the road. 

The Bills offense has posted 31 or more points in each of the first two games but will not be able to run the ball against the Jaguars’ defensive front. The Jaguars held the Miami trio of running backs to just 2.8 yards per carry (21 rushes, 59 yards), and (outside of one 36-yard broken run on fourth-and-1) held the Browns to just 3.0 yards per carry (20 rushes, 65 yards). 

I still have questions about Josh Allen’s passing efficiency, especially without an elite wide receiver. If Jacksonville can stifle James Cook, forcing Allen to attack through the air, the Jaguars could take advantage of Buffalo turnovers to steal a nice road win. I’m taking the value on +220 at FanDuel. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 2.20 Units