Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After two weeks of underwhelming offensive football led to poor fantasy production, Week 3 gave fantasy managers some hope. One player (Jauan Jennings) surpassed 40 PPR points. Four players (Jennings, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry) broke the 30-point mark. In total, 30 players had 20 or more fantasy points.
Offenses are finally starting to break from their early-season slumber and figure out the ways to attack the onslaught of two high safety defenses in 2024. Things will continue to get better for fantasy managers as long as teams can stay healthy.
Check out the highest risers and lowest fallers in Week 3 below.
Risers
Justin Fields, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The leash for Justin Fields as the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers gets longer with each win. It also helps that Fields is starting to put together some respectable performances.
Fields continued to be an efficient passer (25-of-32 for 245 yards and a touchdown with an interception) and had his first game with 20+ fantasy points of the season. Fields hasn’t put up any explosive games but is completing 73.3% of his passes this year. Fields also posted his first rushing touchdown of the season.
Pittsburgh has been able to rely on a run-heavy approach to start the season and hasn’t been forced into passing situations. If Fields can maintain his efficiency with higher passing volume, we may see a new level to his fantasy production. More negative game scripts would undoubtedly mean more rushing attempts as well, giving him an enticing weekly floor.
Fields has certainly earned an extended look under center going forward, and it is time to adjust in fantasy and rely on him as a steady QB2 with the weekly upside of a QB1 overall finish.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For young players, maximizing opportunities is essential to carving out a role at the NFL level. So far, Bucky Irving has been able to show he’s worthy of seeing the field.
Irving undoubtedly saw more work in Week 3 thanks to a groin injury to Rachaad White, but he used that workload to show he can be relied upon in his first season. The rookie had nine carries for 70 yards and three receptions for 14 yards against the Broncos. Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 25 carries this season.
Even with an injured groin, White was on the field for 73% of the team’s snaps. However, his issues with efficiency as a rusher (2.1 yards per carry on 31 carries) have persisted despite the offensive line upgrades in Tampa Bay.
Irving has reached the point where he needs to be rostered in all leagues. He’s done enough to earn a consistent role in the backfield with White and could see his workload continue to grow as he continues to be an efficient runner.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers
All it took for Diontae Johnson to produce was a start from Andy Dalton.
In Bryce Young’s first two starts, Johnson had just five receptions for 34 yards. In one start with Dalton, Johnson had eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy managers who drafted Johnson are undoubtedly hoping that Dalton remains under center for the foreseeable future.
There was plenty of excitement for Johnson operating as the unquestioned WR1 in Dave Canales’ offense. It would have been easy to lose hope through the first two weeks, but Johnson is firmly back on the WR2 radar as long as Carolina has a consistent passer under center.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
The Bears offense as a whole struggled through the first two weeks of the season. Chicago ultimately lost to the Colts in Week 3, but fans got an interesting glimpse of the fantasy potential of the Bears passing attack in Week 3.
Caleb Williams completed 33-of-52 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. He now owns the Bears’ single-game passing record. As a result, we got fantasy-relevant performances from D.J. Moore (eight receptions for 78 yards), Cole Kmet (10 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown) and rookie Rome Odunze (six receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown).
Williams and Odunze just haven’t been on the same page to start the season, and there were several opportunities throughout the game where he just missed Odunze on a downfield shot. Still, Odunze was able to show all of the ability that made him a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Their issues with timing on deep shots will improve throughout the season, which will provide even more “boom week” potential down the road.
Chicago’s passing offense is still a work in progress, but Odunze is doing the best to make the most of Keenan Allen’s absence in the passing attack. He may not command a 23% target share for the entire season, but he has the explosive ability to provide strong fantasy weeks on less work once the deep shots start hitting in Chicago.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown continues to work his way back from a hamstring strain. The Eagles also lost DeVonta Smith to a concussion against the Saints. That led to a massive week for Dallas Goedert in the passing attack.
Goedert had 10 receptions for 170 yards against New Orleans and just missed a touchdown by one yard. The veteran tight end looked dynamic after the catch and made numerous contested catches throughout the game.
There is a chance that Philadelphia will be without Brown and Smith in Week 4, which should have a big impact on Goedert’s ability to produce. In four career games without both wide receivers, Goedert sees a marginal increase in all of his receiving production (minus receptions).
Fallers
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
It is safe to say that Bryce Young was the problem with Carolina’s offense in the first two weeks of the season.
Young was completing just 55.4% of his passes with 245 passing yards and zero touchdowns and three interceptions in the first two weeks. Carolina mustered just 13 points in two games against the Saints and Chargers.
The team named Andy Dalton the starting quarterback on Monday with the caveat that Young will likely make starts again this season. Given how well the veteran played, it may not be until way later in the season.
Dalton executed Dave Canales’ offense extremely well in the team’s win against the Raiders. Dalton completed 26-of-37 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers also put up 36 points in the win. It was just the fourth time they’ve scored 30 points since the 2021 season.
Carolina will undoubtedly want to give Young another chance to show that he can be the team’s quarterback of the future. But it doesn’t bode well for him that Dalton, who has made just one other start since 2022, was able to post a better statistical output than Young has in two seasons.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
It might be time to worry about the lasting impacts of Jaylen Warren’s preseason hamstring injury. Warren was benched in the team’s win against the Chargers due to the persistence of the injury.
As a result, Warren played as many snaps as Cordarrelle Patterson (23) and was well behind Najee Harris (40). Warren also finished behind both players in routes run (10), targets (1) and carries (3).
It also doesn’t help that Patterson, an Arthur Smith favorite, looked very good with an expanded role in the offense. Patterson had four carries for 33 yards and caught three passes for 15 yards. Pittsburgh has a dynamic weapon in the backfield that can allow the team to give Warren time to truly heal from his injury.
Harris will continue to operate as the lead back in Pittsburgh, but Warren has legitimate competition for snaps with Patterson until he is healthy. He’s not droppable in fantasy, but he should be parked on the bench while he works through his hamstring strain.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
The D’Andre Swift experience has been terrible for Chicago.
Swift has just 37 carries for 68 yards (1.8 yards per carry) to start his first year with the Bears. He isn’t adding much in the receiving game either, posting just six receptions for 46 yards.
The veteran running back is still seeing a fair share of the early-down touches for Chicago, but his role in the offense decreased massively in Week 3 against the Colts. Roschon Johnson played 33 snaps in Week 3, including most of the passing situations and the two-minute drills. The team also utilized Khalil Herbert in the red zone, making the Bears backfield extremely ugly for fantasy football.
None of Chicago’s running backs have looked particularly good, but Swift has looked like one of the worst running backs in the NFL through three games. He will continue to bleed work to the other members of the backfield until he can figure out how to put together consistent performances behind a bad offensive line.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
There was hope that Calvin Ridley could turn into a more consistent fantasy receiver with the Titans in 2024. Things looked to be moving in the right direction with DeAndre Hopkins suffering a MCL injury during the preseason.
There were flashes for Ridley in the team’s first two games despite the inconsistency from Will Levis. Ridley had seven receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown and largely outplayed Hopkins, who was seeing a reduced snap share as he worked himself into shape.
Unfortunately for Ridley’s managers, Hopkins looked to be back to normal in Week 3. His return to strength caused an immediate shift in the passing work for the Titans.
Ridley still led Hopkins in snaps played (39 to 25) and routes run (31 to 22) but didn’t turn that into production (one reception for nine yards). Meanwhile, Hopkins was the focal point of the passing attack when he was on the field (46% snap share). He led the team in targets (7), receptions (6), receiving yards (73) and had a touchdown.
More importantly, the Titans utilized a four-receiver rotation largely at the expense of Ridley. Tyler Boyd continued to see the bulk of the team’s snaps in three-receiver sets (38 snaps), but the team continued to deploy Treylon Burks (26 snaps). Burks was getting work in the second half with Hopkins and Boyd, leaving Ridley on the bench.
The Titans passing attack has been underwhelming thanks to the struggles of Will Levis, but Ridley losing snaps to Hopkins and Burks certainly dents his ability to pay off his ADP. There will be better weeks, but it may be time to pump the brakes on the idea of Ridley being a consistent high-end WR2 going forward.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews might be washed. At the very least, we need to consider the fact that his preseason car accident may be hampering him more than we expected.
Andrews had modest production in his first two weeks (six receptions on seven targets for 65 yards) but saw only one target in Baltimore’s win against the Cowboys in Week 3 (he didn’t catch it).
Through three weeks, Andrews is fifth on the team in targets (7), behind Zay Flowers (21), Isaiah Likely (15), Justice Hill (10) and Rashod Bateman (9). He’s fourth on the team in receiving yards (65). It certainly doesn’t help that Baltimore is averaging 30 passing attempts per game and Lamar Jackson has just three passing touchdowns.
Andrews has shown the ability to put up fantasy points in bunches, but he’s also coming off a significant ankle injury in 2023 and the car crash during the preseason. He can’t be dropped at this point, but fantasy managers may want to find a streamable tight end on the waiver wire while he rounds back into form.
