MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 22
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-105) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
- In this week’s game, Isiah Pacheco is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.1 carries.
- After making up 40.9% of his offense’s carries last year, Isiah Pacheco has been more involved in the running game this year, currently taking on 67.0%.
- In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the best in the NFL last year.
- Isiah Pacheco has run for many more adjusted yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- This year, the fierce 49ers run defense has yielded a meager 95.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
- The 49ers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
