Week 22 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-105) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
In this week’s game, Isiah Pacheco is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.1 carries.
After making up 40.9% of his offense’s carries last year, Isiah Pacheco has been more involved in the running game this year, currently taking on 67.0%.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the best in the NFL last year.
Isiah Pacheco has run for many more adjusted yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This year, the fierce 49ers run defense has yielded a meager 95.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
The 49ers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards