Week 22 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-125) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.5% pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Travis Kelce is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs with 10.0 targets.
Travis Kelce has been in the 100th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 52.8 figure this year.

Cons

Travis Kelce has totaled far fewer air yards this season (56.0 per game) than he did last season (67.0 per game).
Travis Kelce’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks an impressive decline in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 80.0 figure.
Travis Kelce’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, accumulating just 4.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.46 figure last season.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) to TEs this year.
This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a feeble 6.8 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards