MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 22
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-125) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.5% pass rate.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this game, Travis Kelce is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs with 10.0 targets.
- Travis Kelce has been in the 100th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 52.8 figure this year.
Cons
- Travis Kelce has totaled far fewer air yards this season (56.0 per game) than he did last season (67.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks an impressive decline in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 80.0 figure.
- Travis Kelce’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, accumulating just 4.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.46 figure last season.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) to TEs this year.
- This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a feeble 6.8 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
