Week 22 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashee Rice

Rashee RiceReceiving Yards

Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.5% pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week’s contest, Rashee Rice is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 9.8 targets.
With a remarkable 67.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Rashee Rice places as one of the top pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

Cons

The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 129.0) to WRs this year.
This year, the stout 49ers defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a feeble 7.5 yards.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco’s collection of LBs has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Receiving Yards