MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 22
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-124).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-124) after it opened @ 49.5 (-117).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see just 127.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
- With an impressive 88.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) this year, George Kittle has been among the TEs with the most usage in the NFL.
- In this week’s contest, George Kittle is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.
- George Kittle’s 59.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks an impressive growth in his receiving talent over last season’s 49.0 rate.
Cons
- The projections expect the 49ers as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.1 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 25.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the worst in football this year.
- This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a feeble 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
