Week 22 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-124).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-124) after it opened @ 49.5 (-117).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see just 127.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
With an impressive 88.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) this year, George Kittle has been among the TEs with the most usage in the NFL.
In this week’s contest, George Kittle is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.
George Kittle’s 59.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks an impressive growth in his receiving talent over last season’s 49.0 rate.

Cons

The projections expect the 49ers as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 25.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the worst in football this year.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a feeble 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards