MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 22
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (+115/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (+115) after it opened @ 260.5 (-117).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.5% pass rate.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In racking up a massive 38.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the NFL (97th percentile) by this metric.
- The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- Patrick Mahomes’s 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a substantial decline in his passing skills over last year’s 325.0 rate.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target this season indicates a material drop-off in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 8.5% mark.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- The 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco’s collection of LBs has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards
287
Passing Yards
