Week 22 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (+115/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (+115) after it opened @ 260.5 (-117).

O/U 263.5
-115/-115

O/U 260.5
-110/-110

O/U 263.5
115/-145

O/U 263.5
-115/-115

Pros

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.5% pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have just 127.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In racking up a massive 38.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the NFL (97th percentile) by this metric.
The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

Patrick Mahomes’s 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a substantial decline in his passing skills over last year’s 325.0 rate.
Patrick Mahomes’s 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target this season indicates a material drop-off in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 8.5% mark.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
The 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco’s collection of LBs has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards