MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 22
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-117/-107).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-107) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see just 127.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
- Brock Purdy’s 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year represents a remarkable growth in his passing talent over last year’s 151.0 mark.
- With an outstanding 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy rates as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL.
- Brock Purdy’s 9.19 adjusted yards-per-target this year marks a significant improvement in his passing efficiency over last year’s 8.0% rate.
Cons
- The projections expect the 49ers as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.1 plays per game.
- In this week’s game, Brock Purdy is projected by the projections to wind up with the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 34.8.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 25.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards
276
Passing Yards
