Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Justice HillRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 21
Ravens vs. Chiefs
Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-127) after it opened @ 30.5 (-113).
Pros
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 49.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Justice Hill to be much more involved in his offense’s running game in this contest (28.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.6% in games he has played).
- Justice Hill’s rushing effectiveness (4.95 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (88th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Cons
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Rushing Yards
39
Rushing Yards
