Week 21 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (+100) after it opened @ 63.5 (-113).

Pros

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 65.0% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

Travis Kelce has notched quite a few less air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (67.0 per game).
Travis Kelce has accrued quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (70.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).
This year, the imposing Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered a puny 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 6th-fewest in the league.
The Ravens pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards