MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 21
Ravens vs. Chiefs
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (+104) after it opened @ 35.5 (-117).
Pros
- The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Ravens ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year.
- With a fantastic 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (95th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews ranks as one of the best pass-game tight ends in football.
- Mark Andrews’s 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a significant gain in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 65.7% figure.
- Mark Andrews’s 9.3 adjusted yards per target this season shows a significant boost in his receiving ability over last season’s 7.8 figure.
Cons
- With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in football.
- The predictive model expects Mark Andrews to be a less important option in his offense’s air attack in this week’s game (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (22.0% in games he has played).
- After totaling 79.0 air yards per game last year, Mark Andrews has produced significantly less this year, now averaging 49.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
