Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 21
49ers vs. Lions
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-135) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week, Brandon Aiyuk is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 78.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects an impressive boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 63.0 mark.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 73.4% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a material boost in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 68.9% rate.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 12.4 adjusted yards per target this season shows a remarkable growth in his receiving talent over last season’s 9.5 figure.
- With an impressive 4.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (80th percentile) this year, Brandon Aiyuk places as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football in picking up extra yardage.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s contest, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.1 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
