Week 21 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-132/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 84.5 (-132) after it opened @ 81.5 (-113).

Pros

This game’s spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Lions, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
In this week’s contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among wideouts with 11.5 targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has totaled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (97.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).
With a terrific 74.4% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among wideouts.
With a stellar 9.8 adjusted yards per target (84th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Lions to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 4.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.59 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards