Week 21 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 248.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 65.0% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.2 passes in this game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.
The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.

Cons

Patrick Mahomes’s 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a material decline in his throwing proficiency over last season’s 325.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes’s passing effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 7.51 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 rate last year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (65.7% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the tough Ravens defense has given up the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a measly 6.4 yards.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards