Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 21
49ers vs. Lions
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-110) after it opened @ 274.5 (-110).
Pros
- Brock Purdy’s 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects an impressive progression in his throwing prowess over last season’s 151.0 mark.
- With a remarkable 69.0% Adjusted Completion% (100th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy ranks among the most on-target passers in the NFL.
- Brock Purdy’s pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 9.31 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.97 mark last year.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s contest, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.1 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
- In this game, Brock Purdy is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.4.
Projection
THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards
296
Passing Yards
