Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-142) after it opened @ 55.5 (-119).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Rachaad White is predicted by the predictive model to slot into the 85th percentile among running backs with 15.8 carries.
- After comprising 33.7% of his team’s carries last season, Rachaad White has been more involved in the run game this season, currently comprising 64.0%.
- Rachaad White has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (30.0).
Cons
- A passing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 36.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 87.0 per game) vs. the Lions defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
