Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-127) after it opened @ 44.5 (-117).
Pros
- A rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- The Lions rank as the 7th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.4% run rate.
- The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).
- Jahmyr Gibbs has picked up 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).
Cons
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- Opposing teams have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 95.0 per game) versus the Buccaneers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
