Week 20 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Gus Edwards

Gus EdwardsRushing Yards

Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-101) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).

Pros

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to run on 50.2% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 137.0 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Gus Edwards has averaged 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (78th percentile).

Cons

Gus Edwards’s 41.8% Snap% this season conveys an impressive improvement in his offensive usage over last season’s 26.4% rate.
This year, the porous Houston Texans run defense has conceded a whopping 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 25th-biggest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Houston’s group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards