NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
49ers vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to earn 18.3 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to be a more important option in his team’s run game in this contest (76.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.1% in games he has played).
- The Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year in run support.
- Aaron Jones has picked up 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (94th percentile).
- Aaron Jones’s ground efficiency (4.92 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (88th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Cons
- At a -10-point disadvantage, the Packers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to run on 38.7% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Packers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.3 plays per game.
- This year, the tough San Francisco 49ers run defense has allowed a meager 87.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
