Week 20 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to earn 18.3 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to be a more important option in his team’s run game in this contest (76.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.1% in games he has played).
The Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year in run support.
Aaron Jones has picked up 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (94th percentile).
Aaron Jones’s ground efficiency (4.92 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (88th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Cons

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Packers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to run on 38.7% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.3 plays per game.
This year, the tough San Francisco 49ers run defense has allowed a meager 87.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards