Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tucker Kraft

Tucker KraftReceiving Yards

Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Packers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
With a remarkable 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft ranks among the best pass-game tight ends in football.
Tucker Kraft checks in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in an impressive 79.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.
Tucker Kraft checks in as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging an impressive 9.19 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.3 plays per game.
This year, the tough San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a paltry 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best in the NFL.
This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a measly 6.7 yards.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco’s collection of LBs has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards