Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards

Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-106) after it opened @ 36.5 (-119).

Pros

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.7 per game) this year.
In this game, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 95th percentile among tight ends with 6.9 targets.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.5% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
With a weak 3.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (23rd percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the league in picking up extra yardage.
The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.9%) versus TEs this year (68.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards