Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Isaiah Likely

Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards

Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-145) after it opened @ 35.5 (-119).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 137.0 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
While Isaiah Likely has received 8.1% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s offense in this week’s game at 15.5%.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.
Isaiah Likely rates as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 32.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.
This year, the shaky Texans pass defense has conceded a monstrous 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst rate in the league.

Cons

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Isaiah Likely has put up far fewer air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
The Houston Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards