Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-139) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).

Pros

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
In this contest, George Kittle is projected by the projections to find himself in the 86th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.
After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has made big progress this season, currently averaging 55.0 per game.
George Kittle’s 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 42.2.
George Kittle’s 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 49.0 rate.

Cons

With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards