NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
49ers vs. Packers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-139) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
- In this contest, George Kittle is projected by the projections to find himself in the 86th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.
- After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has made big progress this season, currently averaging 55.0 per game.
- George Kittle’s 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 42.2.
- George Kittle’s 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 49.0 rate.
Cons
- With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
