Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (+105) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Texans, who are massive -9.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: most in the league.
Dalton Schultz’s 71.7% Snap% this year shows an impressive decrease in his offensive utilization over last year’s 83.6% figure.
In this game, Dalton Schultz is expected by the projections to land in the 82nd percentile among TEs with 5.7 targets.

Cons

Dalton Schultz grades out as one of the bottom tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
This year, the strong Ravens defense has conceded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a measly 7.1 yards.
The Ravens pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.
The Ravens safeties profile as the best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards