Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Bills vs. Chiefs
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.7 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
- The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to garner 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Dalton Kincaid has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 17.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- Dalton Kincaid has notched a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
- With an outstanding 43.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (87th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 54.8% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.7 per game) this year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs this year, conceding 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
