Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.7 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to garner 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.
Dalton Kincaid has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 17.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Dalton Kincaid has notched a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
With an outstanding 43.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (87th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.

Cons

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 54.8% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.7 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) to tight ends this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs this year, conceding 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards