NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
49ers vs. Packers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
- The projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to total 7.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Brandon Aiyuk has compiled significantly more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
- Brandon Aiyuk rates in the 91st percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 65.1 mark this year.
- Brandon Aiyuk has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (81.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Cons
- With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
