Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).

Pros

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to total 7.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk has compiled significantly more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk rates in the 91st percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 65.1 mark this year.
Brandon Aiyuk has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (81.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

Cons

With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards