Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-125) after it opened @ 89.5 (-125).
Pros
- The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.7 per game) this year.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (98.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.5% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards
104
Receiving Yards
